Decreasing energy supplies and ever-increasing consumer demand have set the stage for a high risk future in which countries compete ever more aggressively for dwindling supplies of key sources of energy.

A world without enough oil is unlikely to be a peaceful place. Our near-total dependence on oil for food production and transport mean that decreasing availability is likely to lead to food shortages and increased geopolitical tension. It will threaten the nascent global governance reform agenda and could cause major international conflict over resources. The poorest will be pushed to the back of the queue and inequality will grow, which in turn will feed social unrest.

Governments and multi-lateral agencies have failed to publicly acknowledge the imminence and scale of the global oil supply crunch, and most of them remain completely unprepared for its consequences. Global Witness is calling on governments to officially acknowledge the crunch and to shift urgently into safe sustainable energy alternatives.

Four underlying factors combine to demonstrate that the world is facing an imminent oil supply crunch.  Some of these factors have been apparent for many years.

1. Declining output: By 2008 the annual drop in output from existing fields stood at 3.7 million barrels per day, which requires the same amount to be added every year just to keep the same level of output.  This is the equivalent to more than one third of the entire output from Saudi Arabia.

2. Declining discoveries: 1965 was the year in which the largest volume of oil was discovered.  Since then, the trend in the number and average size of discoveries has been in decline.

3. Increasing demand: In 1984 global conventional crude oil consumption exceeded the volume discovered, and the gap has continued to increase since then.

4. Lack of oil projects in the pipeline: Between 2005 and 2008 conventional oil production ceased to grow, despite massive investment, increasing demand and prices.  This failure to increase conventional oil production, despite all the right incentives, is unprecedented in the history of the oil industry.